Tuesday, January 25, 2011

NFL Pro Bowl Preview: Some Interesting Matchups to Watch

NFL Pro Bowl OddsNot even the best online sportsbook makers are going to give much of an NFL betting line on this year’s Pro Bowl. The Pro Bowl is more for people who enjoy watching certain kinds of match-ups in football than for the people who watch the Super Bowl betting lines closely. This game features some interesting match-ups, especially defensive backs versus wide receivers. The price per head betting experts may not put a lot of stock into the Pro Bowl, but there are a few match-ups that football fans will find exciting as the game plays out.

AFC Quarterbacks Versus NFC Secondary

Tom Brady (New England), Peyton Manning (Indianapolis) and Philip Rivers (San Diego) will be throwing the ball for the AFC. The three quarterbacks combined for 13, 310 yards and 99 touchdowns this season. These three quarterbacks are three of the most prolific quarterbacks in the game right now. They will be throwing to receivers such as Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis) and Andre Johnson (Houston). This group is a potent offensive bunch.

The NFC starting secondary consists of cornerbacks Asante Samuel (Philadelphia) and DeAngelo Hall (Washington). Just those two players alone are responsible for 13 regular season interceptions. DeAngelo Hall as a pick six to his credit as well. Watching this NFC secondary trying to outsmart the AFC receivers and quarterbacks should be very interesting.

AFC Running Backs Versus NFC Running Backs

The AFC running backs are Maurice Jones-Drew (starter – Jacksonville), Arian Foster (reserve – Houston) and Jamaal Charles (reserve – Kansas City). Once again, these three AFC players are some of the most prolific in the game. The trio combined for 4,407 rushing yards in 2010. Foster and Charles are one and two on the overall rushing leader’s list for the 2010 regular season with Jones-Drew coming in at number five. Needless to say, this trio of wide receivers would be a challenge for any group of linebackers.

The inside starting linebacker for the NFC is Patrick Willis (San Francisco 49ers). Willis finished the season with 101 solo tackles and 27 assisted tackles. He forced two fumbles in 2010 that were recovered by San Francisco. Lance Briggs (Chicago) and DeMarcus Ware (Dallas) are the outside linebackers. While the Pro Bowl is not known for its hard hitting action, these three linebackers are well known for the aggressive way they play the game. It will be fun to watch the AFC running backs trying to navigate their way through this linebacking corps of the NFC.

Shane Lechler Versus Devin Hester

Shane Lechler is the all-pro punter for the Oakland Raiders that will be starting for the AFC in this Pro Bowl. Devin Hester (Chicago) is one of the best punt returners in the history of the NFL, and he will be starting for the NFC as the kick returner. Will Lechler kick it to Hester and allow Hester to put on a show in the pro bowl? Will Lechler refuse to be embarrassed by Hester in the Pro Bowl? It will be interesting to see if the rule of not kicking the ball to Devin Hester applies to the Pro Bowl as well.

Friday, January 21, 2011

NFL Playoff Preview – AFC Championship: New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

NFL Playoffs OddsSports Betting Overview:

The New York Jets rode their bravado all the way to the AFC championship game for the second year in a row. The NFL football betting world gets to listen to another week of Jets head coach Rex Ryan and his sound bites. What the Jets did show the Super Bowl betting community is that they have a very potent defense. From the defensive line that puts pressure on the quarterback to the famed Cromartie-Revis secondary, the Jets have a very capable defense.

The Steelers had to come back from a 21-7 halftime deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens in their divisional playoff game. The Baltimore defense held the Pittsburgh offense to relatively few offensive yards, but the Steelers defense completely shut down the Ravens offense in the second half and took the game away from Baltimore. This sets up an interesting price per head AFC championship game.

Offense:

Even though he is a two-time Super Bowl champion, Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has show signs of problems in the late stages of the season and in the divisional playoff game against the Ravens. Roethlisberger was making bad decisions in the first half of the divisional playoff game, and he was holding the ball too long. But it was Big Ben that pulled the Steelers out of their slide and brought the team a victory. Roethlisberger is the epitome of a gun-slinger, and the team will win or lose based on what he does.

The Jets offense in the wild card game was all about the running game. Many observers were wondering if quarterback Mark Sanchez could rise to the occasion if he was called on in the divisional game. Sanchez did what he needed to do against the Patriots, and the Jets running game worked together with Sanchez to put the Patriots away. The Steelers may be a bit of a different story than the Patriots.

Defense:

The strongest part of the New England Patriots team is their offense. The Jets defense managed to shut down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. The Jets are strong all around on defense. New York has strong pass rushers, fast linebackers and a great secondary. But when it comes to a completely unpredictable quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger, the Jets are going to need to learn to adjust on the fly. If any defense can adjust to the antics of Ben Roethlisberger, it is the Jets.

The Steelers play a different kind of game than the Patriots do on defense. The Steelers do not have a young and inexperienced secondary. The Steelers do have a very punishing set of defensive linemen and linebackers. This defense that the Jets will face will be much more dangerous than the Patriots defense. If the Jets are going to win this game, they need to win the line of scrimmage. That will not be easy against this Pittsburgh defense.

The Bottom Line:

Pittsburgh will knock the smile right of Mark Sanchez’s face when it gets the chance. The Jets are extremely strong on offense and defense, but if the Pittsburgh defense can get to Mark Sanchez then the tide of this game could turn quickly.

Sportsbooks Odds Free Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Super Bowl Odds – Bears, Packers Meet For 183rd Time

NFL Playoffs BettingSuper Bowl betting players will get a few history lessons this week when studying up on the NFC title game between Chicago and Green Bay. These two will go head-to-head for the 183rd time in regular and postseason play, but they haven’t met in the playoffs since 1941, and we think there will be a different outcome than that game, which ended in a 33-14 win for the Bears.

Packers vs. Bears Odds – Sunday, 3:00 PM ET)

Aaron Rodgers stole the show with a phenomenal performance in a 48-21 thrashing of Atlanta on the road, completing 31 of his 36 attempts for 366 yards and three touchdowns. He would have had more if not for a couple of drops, but that’s just being picky against the Green Bay offense, which put up 442 yards. From short routes to deep throws, Rodgers was on his game as those watching NFL scores figured it would be much closer, especially in Atlanta. The Packers also forced four turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and if they play that way in Chicago, Green Bay will be almost impossible to beat.

The Bears are coming off a solid 35-24 win over Seattle at home, and Jay Cutler was excellent, going 15-of-28 for 274 yards with a pair of touchdowns, while running for two more scores for the Bears, who had 176 yards on the ground. That means they controlled the clock for over 37 minutes, and it’s rare that you’re going to lose when the other team has the ball for under 23 minutes. One negative is that the Bears allowed the Seahawks to have a slight glimmer of hope with two late touchdowns in the fourth quarter, and if they don’t go hard for 60 minutes against the Packers, they stand a very good chance of losing this game.

Betting services have the Packers as a 3.5-point favorite on the road at Soldier Field, where they are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five visits. These two met twice in the regular season, with the Packers losing 20-17 in Chicago in Week 3, and then bouncing back for a 10-3 win in the final week of the regular season at home. For us, this game boils down to Rodgers against Cutler, and everything points to Rodgers in this situation. He has a 92.6 passer rating in six games against the Bears, while Cutler has a 65.0 rating in five games against the Packers and was outplayed in both games this season by Rodgers, especially in the last game. We don’t think Soldier Field will be that much of an advantage for the Bears, so take the Packers in your sportsbook odds on Sunday.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Super Bowl Betting – NFC Divisional Picks

NFL PicksSuper Bowl betting players saw both underdogs come away with the win during wild-card weekend, including a historic win for Seattle. Next, we have the divisional round, where we’ll see a pair of rematches from the regular season.

Packers Falcons Betting – Saturday, 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta, the NFC South champions, are 2.5-point favorites at the Georgia Dome, where they edged Green Bay 20-17 in Week 12 in a game the Packers should have won. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan was definitely outplayed, statistically, by Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers fumbled the ball at the goal line in the second quarter, while Ryan made no mistakes while driving the Falcons down the field in the final 15 minutes. The Packers are coming off a big win in Philadelphia in which their defense put a beating on Michael Vick, and they’re going to have to do the same thing against the Falcons, as they had just two sacks in Week 12. Those betting on NFL odds will surely know about Ryan’s 20-2 mark at the Georgia Dome as a starter, but we’re taking the Packers to pull off the upset on the grounds that their defense is better, and Rodgers won’t make the same mistakes again. The Falcons looked flustered in a late-season loss to New Orleans at home, and there will be even more pressure this week in Atlanta. Take Green Bay on the road.

Seahawks Bears Betting - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

The NFC North champion Bears are 10-point favorites at home after their bye, and they’ll be out to avenge a 23-20 loss to Seattle in Chicago in Week 6. The Seahawks are definitely pumped up after becoming the first team to win a playoff game despite having a losing record, and on top of that, they did it as 10-point underdogs against the defending Super Bowl champs from New Orleans, making them the NFL pick of the season. However, they were at home in front of arguably the loudest crowd in the NFL (they shook the ground during Marshawn Lynch’s amazing touchdown run), and a few things have changed since Week 6. First, Chicago didn’t have linebacker Lance Briggs in that game, and he’s healthy and ready to go. The Seahawks were coming off a bye heading into that game, but this time it’s the Bears who have a week off. Finally, the Seahawks sacked Chicago’s Jay Cutler six times in that game, and the Bears have since retooled their protection packages to help their quarterback out, not to mention, the linemen have just gotten better. Last week’s game was a nice story for the Seahawks, and it would be great if they won again, but they’re more of a speed team, and that’s not really conducive to the surface at Soldier Field. Take the Bears in your online sportsbook.

Friday, January 14, 2011

NFL Game Preview for Saturday January 15, 2011: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

NFL OddsOnline Sportsbook Preview:

The hardest hitting game of the playoffs will be played in Pittsburgh this Saturday. Even the offshore NFL betting crowd knows that the Ravens and the Steelers each possess the most lethal defenses in the NFL, but the Super Bowl betting odds say that the Steelers have the better all-around team. The Baltimore Ravens may have something to say about that.

The Ravens have been part of the price per head Super Bowl betting picture since the preseason started. With offensive acquisitions such as wide receiver Anquan Boldin, and another year of experience for running back Ray Rice, the Ravens looked ready to challenge for the AFC title this year. As the season played out, the Ravens improved on offense and got healthy enough on defense to become a real threat in this year’s playoffs.

Offense:

The Pittsburgh Steelers biggest weapon is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and their biggest offensive downfall is their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben was sacked 32 times in 12 games played in the 2010 season, and many of those sacks were the result of bad decisions by Roethlisberger. Running back Rashard Mendenhall did not have a 100-yard game against the Ravens this season, and the Ravens showed an ability to shut down the Steelers running game. Between Ben trying to make plays that are not there and Mendenhall getting stopped up by the Ravens front seven, this could be a long day for the Steelers offense.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco was the story in last week’s wild card win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Running back Ray Rice enjoyed limited success gaining 56 rushing yards and picking up key first downs. But Flacco’s 265 passing yards and two touchdowns showed that the Ravens passing game can take over when the running game cannot get the ball into the endzone.

Defense:

The Ravens, with safety Ed Reed in the line up, are a potent defense. The front seven can shut down the run, control the middle of the field and get extreme pressure on the quarterback. With Reed patrolling the secondary, as he will be in this game, the Ravens are also able to limit the effectiveness of the opposition passing game. With a gun-slinger like Roethlisberger making up most of it as he goes along, it is possible that Reed could have a huge day as Ben makes ill-advised throws to get away from the Baltimore pressure up front.

The Steelers offer a very significant challenge to the Ravens offense. The Pittsburgh defense has some of the most punishing linebackers in football that can stuff the run and sack the quarterback. Safety Troy Polamalu makes it extremely difficult to get a passing rhythm going because he is never in the same place twice. Matching up against the Steelers defense will be the biggest challenge for the Ravens.

The Bottom Line:

The Ravens look to be in control of their offense. They tried the run to open the game against the Chiefs. When that did not work, they moved to the pass and won the game. The Steelers have a very chaotic approach to their offense that could prove to be their downfall in this game.

BSN Sports Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Compass Bowl Odds: Pitt, Kentucky Stage Cat Fight In Alabama

It’s not quite BCS bowl betting, but the Compass Bowl in Alabama features a pair of teams who definitely didn’t play as well as they could have this season in Pittsburgh and Kentucky, a pair of teams who also have some off-field troubles coming into this matchup.

Pitt Kentucky Betting – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET

The Panthers (7-5) were picked by many to run away with the Big East, but they just never got on track and ended up getting romped at home by West Virginia in the “Backyard Brawl”, which lead to the firing of Dave Wannstedt (at least the former Dolphins coach has time for Super Bowl betting now). Then they hired and fired Mike Haywood after he was arrested, leaving the Panthers will no coach. They still have a pair of solid backs in Dion Lewis and Ray Graham, which takes the pressure off quarterback Tino Sunseri. The defense comes in ninth in the country, and the Panthers are 19th both against the run and the pass.

The Wildcats (6-6) snuck into the postseason with six wins, and they should have gotten a couple more playing in a poor SEC East. Kentucky was powered by quarterback Mike Hartline and receiver Randall Cobb, leading the Wildcats to the 26th-ranked offense in the country, but Hartline was arrested in December and will be suspended for his senior-season finale. Also, running back Derrick Locke missed four games in the middle of the season, but he came around at the end and the Wildcats will need him, because Morgan Newton hasn’t gotten many snaps under center. The Kentucky defense comes in 46th, but they’re also 72nd in scoring defense, which is far too many for the amount of yards they allow.

Your online bookie service has the Panthers as a 3.5-point favorite in their first-ever meeting with the Wildcats, and this is a very interesting matchup because both programs have gone through some off-field things since the regular season ended. The Panthers are the team that is more talented, and they have running backs who have each run for over 250 yards in a game this season. We think they can overcome their head-coaching problems, while the Wildcats have to overcome the absence of their offensive leader and most important player (with all respect to Cobb, one of the most versatile players in the NCAA), Hartline. Newton just doesn’t have the experience to deal with the pressure of a bowl game, especially one where a winning season hangs in the balance. Look for Pitt to wear Kentucky down with their running game and roll to a win, so lay a sports bet on the Panthers.

Monday, January 3, 2011

NFL Game Preview for January 8, 2011: New Orleans Saints (-10.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sports Bet Overview:

In fairy tales you often hear of the underdog who suddenly finds super-human strength and overcomes the bigger opponent. In NFL betting, there is no such thing as fairy tales. The online football betting experts are not surprised to see the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West considering how weak the rest of the division is. But the problem for Seattle is that they won a division that was taken by the team that lost the least rather than a team that won the most. The pay per head sportsbook experts are not giving the Seahawks much of a chance in this game, and that is because fairy tales are not reality.

The New Orleans Saints were riding an incredible wave of momentum until they lost in week 17 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There were a few things that cost the defending Super Bowl champs that game, but the biggest was their attempts to establish a running game that has been non-existent all season long. With players like Chris Ivory, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas carrying the ball, it is hard to imagine that the Saints still rely almost solely on quarterback Drew Brees for their offense.

Offense:

As was mentioned, the Saints have no running game. When you look closely at the stats, you may start to realize why the Saints have no running game. Drew Brees was sacked 25 times in 2010. That is not excessive, but it is the second-highest season total in Brees’ career. When a quarterback as elusive as Brees is getting sacked more than an average of once per game, that means the offensive line is having some problems. There are no holes for the running backs to run through, and the line needs to fix that if they want to win in the playoffs.

The Seahawks let Charlie Whitehurst start in the week 17 game against the St. Louis Rams that decided the NFC West winner. Starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was able to play, but head coach Pete Carroll decided that Hasselbeck was too banged up to be effective. Neither of the Seattle quarterbacks has been very impressive this season, but if Carroll passes over Hasselbeck for the playoff game then that would pretty much sound the end to Hasselbeck’s career in Seattle. Seattle also has no running game, but they do not have the potent air attack that the Saints have to offset their lack of running yardage.

Defense:

The Saints defense showed an aggressive pass rush against the Bucs, but they left the middle of the field open for the pass. The New Orleans linebackers and secondary have been inconsistent all season long. If they were ever going to bring the defense together to play as a unit, now would be the time.

The Seahawks have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league, and that is what will cost them this game. They have no pass rush to intimidate or upset Brees, and their secondary is unable to stay with the Saints receivers. The line up front may be able to contain the Saints running game, but the secondary will not be able to keep Brees off the scoreboard.

The Bottom Line:

The Seahawks backed their way into the playoffs like no other team in history. They are the first team with a losing record to win a division and make the playoffs. The only thing they have going for them is their fans and the noise at Qwest Field. But the Saints play twice a year in the Atlanta Georgia Dome and are more than used to fan noise.

Pick: New Orleans Saints